Emissions-based simulation to evaluate long-term low carbon transition pathways for the UK gas and electricity infrastructure

Technical and institutional change is required for the UK government to reach its target of 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, and a 20% reduction by 2020. In 2005, the UK was ranked ninth in the world for GHG emissions in electricity and heat, emitting 232.8 MtCO2 of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The energy infrastructure therefore requires investment, and re-design, to continue to meet predicted UK demand whilst aiding in a reduction in CO2 emissions and improving supply security. Hence development of a UK energy modelling base for use as a technical assessment to study transitions for this change towards a low carbon economy and infrastructure is thus of great importance. However an initial emissions-based evaluation of the low carbon transition pathways is compulsory before this combined modelling base can be designed. The emissions-based evaluation model will computationally determine, out to 2052, all major UK GHG and transport sector pollutant emissions as a result of each transition pathway decision for the UK electricity and gas infrastructure.